Dangote Fuel via Lomé: Who Profits While Imports Rise?
If Dangote Fuel Is Returning Through Lomé, Who Is Making Money?
When S&P Global Commodity Insights analyst Matthew Tracey-Cook told a MEMAN webinar last week that between 70 and 80 percent of Nigeria's petrol waterborne imports between March and May originated from Dangote exports being routed through Lomé, the argument quickly became about whether the claim was true. Dangote Refinery says it is not. That dispute has dominated the headlines. The economics have received far less attention.
Dangote stated that moving petroleum products from the refinery to Lomé and then back into Nigeria incurs logistics costs of between $82 and $90 per metric tonne. Shipping, storage, handling, financing, and other charges all add costs to a journey that begins and ends in the same country.
That figure creates a simple question. Why would anyone willingly add up to $90 per metric tonne in extra costs unless there was enough money to be made on the other side?
For the trade to work commercially, the price advantage would need to be large enough to absorb those additional costs and still leave room for profit. Dangote argues that it does not offer export discounts deep enough to make that possible. On paper, that argument is difficult to dismiss.
Then there is the import data. Figures released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority show that petrol imports rose by 59.5% in May 2026, climbing from 3.7 million litres per day in April to 5.9 million litres per day in May. During the same month, domestic refineries supplied approximately 41.5 million litres per day, accounting for roughly 88% of the total market supply.
Put those numbers side by side, and the contradiction becomes harder to ignore
Nigeria now has a refinery capable of supplying most of the domestic petrol market. Local refineries are already providing the overwhelming majority of the fuel consumed in the country. Yet imports are still rising.
The data tells us what happened, but it doesn’t tell us why. That unanswered question matters because the promise of Dangote was never just local production. The bigger promise was efficiency, shorter supply chains, less dependence on imports, greater fuel security, and fewer opportunities for costs to accumulate between the refinery gate and the filling station.
Whether the Lomé routing claim is ultimately proven or disproven, the underlying issue remains.
Nobody standing at a filling station cares whether a cargo passed through Lomé, Lagos, or anywhere else. What matters is whether fuel reaches the market reliably and at the lowest possible cost.
The debate over Dangote and Lomé is really a debate about whether Nigeria is capturing the full benefits that local refining was supposed to deliver. The import numbers suggest there is still part of the story the market has not explained.
Sources: Nairametrics, Dangote Refinery Insists Exported Fuel Is Not Returning to Nigeria Through Lomé, June 2026; Punch Newspapers, Nigerian Marketers Import Dangote Fuel Via Lomé Hub, June 2026; Nairametrics, Petrol Imports Jump 59.5% in May Despite Stronger Output from Local Refineries, June 2026; Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Petroleum Supply Statistics, May 2026.
Fabian Omini
Energy Analyst
Fabian Omini is an energy analyst with a keen interest in translating complex energy and finance topics into clear, accessible narratives for everyday Africans.
